Circle Three 73 / Please Come Home for Christmas
Merry Christmas! This is hitting your inboxes on the 25th, but don’t read it today. Spend the day with family and friends, and read the below this week.
Contents:
brain bites: Psychology & Health
The future our grandchildren deserve: Bill Gates’ 2022 letter
Choose Good Quests
The Helsinki Bus Station Theory.
brain bites: Business & Investing
Sea Change by Howard Marks
brain bites: Technology
Quick Thoughts on AI from Collab Fund
Lyric: Please Come Home for Christmas
brain bites: psychology & health
The future our grandchildren deserve. Bill Gates’ 2022 letter on the work his foundation has done and where they will focus. From ending the AIDS pandemic to becoming a grandfather to doubling down on math education, Mr. Gates is working hard to change the world more than he already has.
I describe our top global priority this way: We help people in poor countries who shouldn’t die, not die. Especially children.
Choose Good Quests. Fitting end-of-year reflection on what it is that drives us, what they refer to as Quests:
In the most simple terms possible: a good quest makes the future better than our world today, while a bad quest doesn't improve the world much at all, or even makes it worse
History is the record of top players completing good quests.
The Helsinki Bus Station Theory. Here on creative continuity — by staying on the metaphorical bus, new territories are explored. Stay on the bus.
brain bites: business & investing
Sea Change. By Howard Marks from Oaktree. Summary here with link at the bottom. The economic environment is changing, and the next decades will be marked by higher interest rates and higher inflation than what we are now accustomed to.
The bottom line for me is that, in many ways, conditions at this moment are overwhelmingly different from – and mostly less favorable than – those of the post-GFC climate described above. These changes may be long-lasting, or they may wear off over time. But in my view, we’re unlikely to quickly see the same optimism and ease that marked the post-GFC period.
brain bites: technology
Quick Thoughts on AI. Piece from Craig Shapiro of the Collab Fund. Imagine the chart including technologies from 50 years ago. Here’s the conclusion:
It is hard to discern who will benefit from AI and who will be challenged. It’s also unclear where there are opportunities for value creation (ie. make money as an investor) and where there will be value destruction. But it is clear change is upon us and evolving rapidly.
Lyric: Please Come Home for Christmas
Family. The people not chosen, but assigned by fate — intimately connected for your entire lives. Relationships are beautiful and messy, and nothing brings out the nuances of those relationships like the holidays. But it’s my hope everyone can be home, wherever that may be. Here’s the Eagles’ version of Please Come Home for Christmas.
But this is Christmas, yes, Christmas my dear
The time of year to be with the ones you love
So won't you tell me you'll never more roam
Christmas and New Year's will find you home
Stay Curious,
Dan