Circle Three 58 / Homecoming
Happy Labor Day Weekend. Grills are firing, the sun is out, and sports fill the screens.
Notre Dame sits at 0-1 after a respectable game, the U.S. Open has provided some iconic tennis, and the LIV Golf Tour wraps up its fourth tournament today.
It’s a great weekend to tell those around you that you appreciate them and the work they do.
Contents:
brain bites: Business & Investing
Pantera Capital Blockchain letter
Corporate Bonds and Loans
brain bites: Culture
Athletic Brewing & Alcohol in America
Portfolio Career
brain bites: Psychology
Kurt Vonnegut’s Advice
Lyric: Homecoming
brain bites: business & investing
Ethereum Tightening More Than Fed by Dan Morehead. Here. He comments on the upcoming Merge, institutional interest in crypto during this downturn, and he notes that inflation could remain for years and has likely already started, although the probability might not say the same.
Here’s his take on the macro:
“My main view for the next 12 months is crypto’s going to decouple from the macro story and trade on its own fundamentals. A lot of people are using it, DeFi worked, etc.
“On the macro side, I think the Fed are going to have to hike a lot more than people are talking about. … that’s going to take a couple of years..
“So overall, I think rates will keep going up, and crypto’s going to go up.”
What Are Corporate Bonds and Loans? Video here, sent by a friend & reader. I want to gain a better understanding after the collapse of crypto lenders/borrowers. Revolver loan, term loan, pro rata or institutional, bond length, risk profiling — familiar terms but unfamiliar specifics.
HY Bond issuance spiked at the beginning of the pandemic, requirements were lax. Helps to see how 3AC was poised for collapse.
brain bites: culture
How Athletic Brewing Company Made Moderation Cool. Read here from Inc. The brewery was the 26th fastest-growing company of the year, with 3-year revenue growth of 13,000+%.
As a brand ambassador, I saw firsthand some of that growth and evolution. You can’t walk into a sporting event or race without Athletic beers there.
Tasty non-alcoholic beer is exploding around the country, and it’s a great thing for sober-curious, hangover-averse, or social drinkers. After all, alcohol-related deaths doubled in the last twenty years.
Americans’ relationship with alcohol has a long and winding history, summed up in part in The Atlantic’s article America Has a Drinking Problem.
I’m convinced N.A. beer will continue to grow exponentially. I’m contributing to that this weekend. These two quotes get at why:
Social drinking is booming after covid:
“Throughout history, drinking has provided a social and psychological service. At a moment when friendships seem more attenuated than ever, maybe it can do so again.”
We drink everywhere:
“Actual bars have decreased in number, but drinking is acceptable in all sorts of other places it didn’t used to be: Salons and boutiques dole out cheap cava in plastic cups. Movie theaters serve alcohol, Starbucks serves alcohol, zoos serve alcohol.”
Drinking less is a popular trend — not only because weed usage is on the rise, but that certainly contributes. A studyearlier this year revealed that one drink per day shrinks your brain. GenZ consumes 20% less alcohol than Millennials did at the same age. I don’t see alcohol going the way of tobacco over the next few decades, but the growth leaves no doubt: Athletic is onto something.
Consider a Portfolio Career. This is a topic I keep seeing, so I wrote my thoughts on the pros and cons of a portfolio career approach. Many Americans are embarking on a portfolio career journey.
Rich Roll: “You become a more robust individual. You understand different walks of life and different perspectives. You start to figure out what you enjoy doing and what you don’t enjoy doing.”
brain bites: psychology & health
Kurt Vonnegut’s Advice. “make your soul grow” was the author’s advice to a high school english class in 2006.
I dare you to follow his assignment:
Here’s an assignment for tonight: Write a six-line poem, about anything, but rhymed. No fair tennis without a net.
Make it as good as you possibly can. But don’t tell anybody what you’re doing. Don’t show it or recite it to anybody, not even your girlfriend or parents or whatever. OK?
Tear it up into teeny-weeny pieces, and discard them into widely separated trash receptacles. You will find that you have already been gloriously rewarded for your poem. You have experienced becoming, learned a lot more about what’s inside you, and you have made your soul grow.
Lyric: Homecoming by Josh Ritter
This week brought changes. Mornings are a little cooler and end-of-summer vacations are finished.
But there are events around the globe — food shortages, presidential speeches, covid lockdowns, energy crises, it’s all there — that make now seem like a prime time for a homecoming.
I feel a change in the weather
I feel a change in me
The days are getting shorter and the birds begin to leave
Even me, yes, yes, y'all
Who has been so long alone
I'm headed home
Headed home
Stay Curious,
Dan